As a profession, we must advance along with our technology

Jim Simmons, Research Fellow

I "discovered" the Internet on January 29, 1996. It was raining that evening as I recall and my short drive just outside town past pastures and almond orchards was a paradox to what I was about to experience. As I entered what appeared to be a converted garage I met Gilbert.

Gilbert was working at Merced Jr. College during the day and running his startup Internet service during the evening. We sat in front of his terminal framed by stacks of modems and a spaghetti of cables. He took me on a "tour" of some internet sites and explained how he had gotten all the equipment for his fledgling ISP business "off the Internet."

After about an hour, with head spinning, I signed up then and there to my first dial–up service. Gilbert's service continues to grow and I still have my personal email account with him. I knew I had just seen the biggest thing in technology since my first PC.

The great things I had envisioned with this new tool were dwarfed by what actually happened. This then was the beginning of a transition from print based reporting to digital based transfers. Today, I doubt I produce more than two or three reports a year on my color laser printer.

Those appraisers among us who have been around a while have seen significant changes in technology and our industry the past 10 to 15 years. We have experienced major developments in forms software to be sure. Forms software has transitioned from simple form fillers to applications blending photo processing, spreadsheet analysis, mapping services, and more. Additionally, by virtue of digital processing, we have seen the birth of new technologies including digital photography and internet transfer of reports that we now take for granted.

Our clients have changed from mostly local banks or mortgage companies owned or managed by folks we've known for many years to clients from all corners of the country with orders coming from people we will most certainly never met in person. As I begin my term in this labs adventure I reflect on aspects of our business that, to no small measure, will impact how we produce our reports in the future.

After consideration of the major innovations in the past and looking at technological trends as a whole it seems to me we are in transition from raster to vector based technologies and from analog to digital based technologies. The driving force is two–fold: the increasing speed and storage capacity of computers, and the increasing availably of high bandwidth internet services. All of my labs projects, I can assure you, will focus on leveraging these transitions.

These technological transitions, as I see it, are resulting in a trend that is blurring the lines between data residing on our hard drive or RAM and data residing on distant servers. It seems likely that in the near future this will lead to applications that, when connected to the Internet at the office, or from any of the increasingly popular WiFi hotspots, automatically synchronize data from one or many servers in the background but continue to work online or offline without a pause. The main driving application, or at least "plug–in" components, may even reside on a server. Vendors or governmental agencies, supplemented perhaps by an intermediate data collection service, will provide needed information. The various entities will be updating their data continuously thus providing a nearly real time source of information.

To some extent this transition has begun. We already get many of our location and flood maps from geo–located data. Some receive comps from vendors or collectives via online subscription services. As time goes on data services, and others, will develop into more easily accessible add–ons integrated seamlessly into our forms software to speed report completion. We should then put more of our efforts into improving the quality of analysis, diversify our "menu" of services offered, marketing our brand or pursuing any number of other more profitable or pleasurable pursuits.

As more and more of our routine data are digitized and models automated, the need to have appraisal involvement in data search and to some degree analysis will diminish. Our task then will be to develop a breadth of skills that becomes less replaceable. Additionally the need to network with like–minded peers will become critical. Information can be "Googled" for nearly any subject and real estate in particular, as a driving economic engine, has captured the attention of the masses.

Our clients, at all levels, have more than likely done some market research prior to calling on us. It would be to our advantage to form local professional collaborations to share data and present a level of expertise unavailable from any other source. Our great advantage after all is our local knowledge.

By the way, most regionally based data services lack accuracy and timeliness. Some of, if not most of, the projects we are working on in the labs will empower each appraiser to network with other local professionals to obtain the highest quality information in the fastest time. What I am suggesting is another type of transition.

I suggest a transition from a loose group of competitors into a unified class real estate of experts. A software vendor like a la mode can provide the tools but it will be up to appraisers individually and as group to decide to "check the ego at the door" and come together for the good of the whole.

I know from personal experience this model can work. It only takes the effort to look beyond personal differences between individuals and realize the fact that, for better or worse, we are in this together and combining our knowledge base is actually a "firewall" to those who might otherwise choose to bypass our services.

Now before I "roll up my sleeves" and get working on the new innovations in the labs, I must say, if nothing more than a reminder to myself, "enter the labs site with an open mind and some caution. With new technology comes change. Sometimes the change is good and sometimes not". While this isn't the Manhattan Project I can see the possibility of some elements of the things we're discussing that could profoundly change the appraisal landscape.